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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still