Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
